Bibi’s strategy is built on convincing the Israeli public that Likud are a moderate, centre-right party. As part of this effort, he had to stop Feiglin doing well in the primaries. But he failed. Feiglin took twentieth place on the Knesset list. At first glance, this might not seem that impressive. When you take into account that Likud should easily take twenty seats, though, the picture looks different. Of more significance, though, is the makeup of the rest of the top twenty. The top five on the list (Gideon Saár, Gilad Erdan, Reuven Rivlin, Benny Begin, and Moshe Kahlon) have all been endorsed by Feiglin. In contrast, Bibi’s favourites barely featured. Dan Meridor took 17th place, while Uzi Dayan looks all but out of the race for a Knesset place. Bibi’s highest placed candidate is also his most overtly right-wing one, former Chief of Staff Moshe Yaálon.

It is no exaggeration to call this a far-right list, perhaps the most right-wing party slate in contemporary Israeli political history. The assumed wisdom is that this will deal a fatal blow to Likud’s election hopes. Internal polls ordered by Netanyahu himself, for example, show that Feiglin and his mates are liable to cause Likud to lose at least four or five seats in the elections. The first poll since the primary, however, doesn’t bear this out. A Haaretz poll, conducted the day after, shows Likud way out in front with 36, Kadima with 27, and Labor with 12. This is disturbing data, and one can only hope that it was carried out too soon after the Likud primary to make a real difference to the figures. Besides, Israeli opinion polls are notoriously unreliable.

Despite these consoling numbers, Netanyahu’s not resting on his laurels. Israeli party slates often have seats reserved for women and minorities. Because women performed relatively well in the Likud primaries, Bibi has managed to convince the Likud party committee that the ticket secured for women should be given to regional representatives. This means, for reasons which aren’t entirely clear to me, that Feiglin finds himself in 36th place, meaning his chances of gaining a seat in the Knesset are hanging in the balance.

Meanwhile, Bibi has gone on the diplomatic offensive, telling foreign diplomats that he’ll personally manage negotiations with Syria and the Palestinians, and that the international community has nothing to worry about. Can a leopard change his spots? The answer, I think, is painted on Tel Aviv buses.

?ביבי

אני לא מאמין לו

[Bibi? I don't believe him].

In theory, then, Faiglin’s success, even when one takes into account today’s martyrdom, should benefit Kadima and the parties of the left. But yet. It seems to me that Bibi is deploying an unwitting Faiglin as his wing-man. Bibi’s the average-looking guy who’s cruising the pubs with a man who looks like the Lebanese mutant potato. By emphasising what a monster Feiglin is, Bibi is trying to convince the Israeli public that he’s not so bad. This is the clear and present danger, a seduction that must be avoided at all costs.