After the Speeches (Gabriel Levin)
If anyone else is interested in writing a Guest Dichotomies, be in touch…
In Cairo, Barack Obama laid out his vision for the new Middle East. Its particulars were not new, but the idea of a President genuinely committed to comprehensive regional peace was. Obama laid out the path towards peace between Israel and the Palestinians. It was, as Alex rightly put it, an incrementalist approach. There was no comprehensive solution; just an idea of what the first steps needed to be and a vision of the future.
The government in Jerusalem panicked. They were stuck between a popular American President they needed and their own conservative base. On Sunday night, speaking from Bar Ilan in Ramat Gan, one of the biggest conservative institutions in Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu had a chance to respond to Obama’s historic Cairo speech. Netanyahu embraced Obama’s vision of peace by extending his hand, his middle finger up. His big concession, the need for a Palestinian state, was something that every Israeli Prime Minister since…well, Netanyahu the first go round, had already acknowledged. In fact, Netanyahu’s great concession took Israel back to a more conservative place than it had been in a decade. The conditions Netanyahu laid down sent a clear message. There would be no serious peace talks and no Palestinian state. As David Grossman wrote in his excellent peace in Haaretz, Netanyahu “did not lead Israel to a new future. He only collaborated with its old, familiar anxieties”. This, in itself, is not a surprise even if it was a disappointment. Netanyahu was never going to abandon the settlers. What was deeply dismaying however, was the positive response this speech got in Israel. Netanyahu’s popularity went up 16% after the speech. The erstwhile left wing Labor applauded a speech that they should have derided.
The idea that eventually both sides would get tired and eventually realise that peace was the only way forward has not come to fruition. Instead, we are moving backwards. The Palestinians still seem bent on destroying Israel while complaining that Israel isn’t moving towards peace and Israel is more interested in excuses as to why it must confiscate more Palestinian land (“We can’t remove the settlements because of Iran, terrorism, and the rise in the price of shakshuka”).
So, what can Obama do? Obama must have been hoping that Netanyahu would reconstitute his government with Kadima (by staying mostly in the same place politically, Kadima has gone from centre -right, to centre, since its inception.)This didn’t happen and Netanyahu will now demand some Palestinian action in return for what he thinks was a large concession. (What the Palestinians can possibly offer after that speech eludes me.) What I think Obama will do is keep pressing gently on all sides. Little concession by little concession until something big happens-a Palestinian unity government, the fall of Likud, or something similar. Netanyahu has indicated that he will fight every incremental move towards genuine peace tooth and nail forcing Obama to use more political capital than he would like to accomplish very little. I still have some hope in Obama’s ability to force all sides towards some solution. However, I am a lot less hopeful after Netanyahu’s speech than I was a week ago.