Give and Take
I’ve decided to try and post more regularly, so stay tuned. Apologies if some of these early posts are wack, it may take me time to get the right tone for these more frequent commentaries…
Quid pro quo. You give something and expect to get something back in return. Diplomacy 101, something I don’t need to remind the esteemed readers of False Dichotomies. But the new Israeli government would do well to take a quick crash-course of the basics of international diplomacy, at least if they don’t want to be swept away by the new realities, leaving the country stuck in a strategic nightmare in the process.
It’s clear to anyone with eyes to see that progress on the Palestinian front will make the task of building a robust coalition against Iran’s nuclear ambitions far easier. The Sunni world does not want to see Iran getting a nuclear bomb. At the same time, on the famed Arab street, Ahmadinejad is a hero, a humble man who tells it like it is, just like his proxy, Hassan Nasrallah. So the tottering Sunni autocrats have to tread carefully. Their task would be much easier if there was progress in negotiations between Israel and Palestine, or if the Arab League Initiative was greeted a bit more enthusiastically.
This logic is finally being picked up on by the Americans. According to today’s Yediot Ahranot, the new formula for Middle-East peace is Bushehr for Yitzhar. Bushehr is the Iranian nuclear reactor lusted over by Israeli fighter pilots; Yizhar is a bunch of caravans on some windy West Bank hill. If you want to stop the reactor, then, you better take down the caravans.
Dismantling the outposts would be a cinch. Keeping them there makes little strategic sense, a point that is surely understood even by Netanyahu. But, lest we forget, this is the most right-wing government in Israeli history, and it has a constituency to answer to like any other. Dismantling the outposts would be the first step required by the Americans. Next they would want a Bibi declaration in favour of a two-state solution, something even Tzipi Livni couldn’t get out of him when he was so desperate to have her in his unity government. This is because a vast majority of the members of his party, not to mention most of the other parties in his coalition, are opposed to it.
This leaves Israel dramatically out of step with the international consensus. If the new government doesn’t adjust itself quickly to the new diplomatic reality, it will end up endangering Israel’s most important strategic relationship. Israel’s two security priorities should be preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and coming to a deal with the Palestinians. It is in Israel’s interest to stop all settlement expansion forthwith. What will Bibi do?