Give and Take

2009 April 16
by Alex

I’ve decided to try and post more regularly, so stay tuned. Apologies if some of these early posts are wack, it may take me time to get the right tone for these more frequent commentaries…

Quid pro quo. You give something and expect to get something back in return. Diplomacy 101, something I don’t need to remind the esteemed readers of False Dichotomies. But the new Israeli government would do well to take a quick crash-course of the basics of international diplomacy, at least if they don’t want to be swept away by the new realities, leaving the country stuck in a strategic nightmare in the process.

It’s clear to anyone with eyes to see that progress on the Palestinian front will make the task of building a robust coalition against Iran’s nuclear ambitions far easier. The Sunni world does not want to see Iran getting a nuclear bomb. At the same time, on the famed Arab street, Ahmadinejad is a hero, a humble man who tells it like it is, just like his proxy, Hassan Nasrallah. So the tottering Sunni autocrats have to tread carefully. Their task would be much easier if there was progress in negotiations between Israel and Palestine, or if the Arab League Initiative was  greeted a bit more enthusiastically.

This logic is finally being picked up on by the Americans. According to today’s Yediot Ahranot, the new formula for Middle-East peace is Bushehr for Yitzhar. Bushehr is the Iranian nuclear reactor lusted over by Israeli fighter pilots; Yizhar is a bunch of caravans on some windy West Bank hill. If you want to stop the reactor, then, you better take down the caravans. 

Dismantling the outposts would be a cinch. Keeping them there makes little strategic sense, a point that is surely understood even by Netanyahu. But, lest we forget, this is the most right-wing government in Israeli history, and it has a constituency to answer to like any other. Dismantling the outposts would be the first step required by the Americans. Next they would want a Bibi declaration in favour of a two-state solution, something even Tzipi Livni couldn’t get out of him when he was so desperate to have her in his unity government. This is because a vast majority of the members of his party, not to mention most of the other parties in his coalition, are opposed to it.

This leaves Israel dramatically out of step with the international consensus. If the new government doesn’t adjust itself quickly to the new diplomatic reality, it will end up endangering Israel’s most important strategic relationship. Israel’s two security priorities should be preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and coming to a deal with the Palestinians. It is in Israel’s interest to stop all settlement expansion forthwith. What will Bibi do?

12 Comments leave one →
2009 April 17

I’m admittedly less schooled in Israeli politics and history than I’d like to be. Nevertheless, it’s difficult to imagine Bibi not seeing the value of bolstering our relationship with the US by withdrawing from the settlements and ceasing their expansion.

Appreciate your ongoing apt commentary, Alex.

~ Maya

The New Jew: Blogging Jewish Philanthropy

2009 April 17

“It’s clear to anyone with eyes to see that progress on the Palestinian front will make the task of building a robust coalition against Iran’s nuclear ambitions far easier.”

To you, me and many others yes, but far from everybody.

Another swap could be: “withdraw your support for Hesbollah/Hamas and we’ll pressure Israel into two states”.

I guess it depends on US intel on the “Iranian Bomb” as to which of the swaps are most likely.

2009 April 18

Such a coalition might be easier to form, but an effective coalition seems highly unlikely. Even the most enthusiastic coalitions of this sort in the past, have not affected a boycott – short of that, nothing seems likely to cripple the Iranian nuclear program.

Furthermore, Israel might end up jeopardizing it’s relationship with the US – but that relationship is not more important than all else. As I’ve said in the past – American money does more harm to Israeli independence (regardless of steps taken with said independence) than almost any other factor.

“Israel’s two security priorities should be preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and coming to a deal with the Palestinians.” Iran – yes, of course. A deal with the Palestinians? No. There is simply no evidence that any deal (short of one that will eliminate Israel as a Jewish state) will neutralize the threat of terrorism. Neutralizing that threat is the priority, and Israel’s primary responsibility.

2009 April 18

LB:

“A deal with the Palestinians? No. There is simply no evidence that any deal (short of one that will eliminate Israel as a Jewish state) will neutralize the threat of terrorism.”

I see. No deal with the Palestinians. Unbridled colonisation and let’s blame anti-Semitism (‘The New New New anti-Semitism”) as any opposition to it.
Now LB will, in time tested and old fashioned Hasbarist methodology, tale my comment apart, syllable by syllable, and find fault. Watch.

2009 April 18

Ooops; ‘take’, not ‘tale’. My bad.

2009 April 18

First, why the tone? If you start out by insulting people, why do you expect to have an actual discussion?

Second, there is no colonialism here. That implies a foreign entity, with no real connection to a place, exploiting that place and its inhabitants.

Finally, even if you do see it as colonialism – then it’s a bargaining chip, fine. With that argument, deals have been offered countless times – and have been answered with war every single time.

2009 April 18

Sheesh, LB, where is the ‘tone’? None was intended and I still can’t see one rereading my comment.

Well, you could call it something else if you like. ‘Population Centers’ instead of ‘Settlements’ for instance. Doesn’t change much though, does it?

2009 April 18

My point still stands – there is no colonialist policy, and there is nothing that to a signed agreement will be enforced, not to mention bring about quiet to the region.

By the way “in time tested and old fashioned Hasbarist methodology” is where I found that ‘tone.’ But if you didn’t intend it – then I take back what I said.

2009 April 19

LB:

“That implies a foreign entity, with no real connection to a place, exploiting that place and its inhabitants.”

The only connection Yehudi from Brooklyn has to Palestine is very old mythology. This then is your basis for refusing to accept the term ‘colonisation’? This mythical connection gives him the right to colonise someone else’s land? Go tell it to the UN.

Homo originated in all likelihood in Africa. Can justify past colonisation of Africa this way?

2009 April 19

Ooops (again): ‘can one’, of course.

2009 April 19

“The only connection Yehudi from Brooklyn has to Palestine is very old mythology.” Wrong. So wrong.

2009 April 20
Gabriel permalink

“The only connection Yehudi from Brooklyn has to Palestine is very old mythology. This then is your basis for refusing to accept the term ‘colonisation’? This mythical connection gives him the right to colonise someone else’s land? Go tell it to the UN.”

I don’t give a crap about the UN or even about international law (which is based on the law of the victor, hardly every applied, and conveniently leaves out anything that would make the world powers suffer at all.). Israel needs to make peace with the Palestinians because it is the moral thing to do, because the Palestinians need a state to feel secure for themselves, and because if they ever want to live in any security, they are going to have to make a deal. The problem with your “Yehudi from Brooklyn” line and indeed with the whole “Palestinians have a connection to the land that Jews from America/Britain/etc.. don’t” is that argument will expire if Israel just waits. Fewer and fewer Israelis are now born abroad and if Israel waited, say 60 years, there would be no refugees who had ever been born in Palestine, almost none whose parents were born there, and many whose grandparents and great-grandparents were not born there while settlers and their descendants living on some hill top near Hebron might have been there for 80 years. The settler family would then surely have a vastly greater attachment to that land. Israel can just look at Northern Ireland and see how, after a long time, colonization becomes impossible to undo. The argument to be made is not about who has an attachment to the land, but who has the moral right to the land. Those settlers, whether they come from Brooklyn or are fourth generation Sabras, equally have no right to be there.

Leave A Comment

Note: You can use basic XHTML in your comments. Your email address will never be published.

Subscribe to this comment feed via RSS