Comments on: What happened during the ceasefire? http://falsedichotomies.com/2008/12/31/what-happened-during-the-ceasefire/ LITERATURE HIP-HOP ISRAEL INDIA LOVE MISCELLANY Mon, 07 May 2012 17:58:59 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.1 By: SDRay http://falsedichotomies.com/2008/12/31/what-happened-during-the-ceasefire/comment-page-1/#comment-315 SDRay Tue, 13 Jan 2009 03:45:41 +0000 http://falsedichotomies.com/?p=138#comment-315 It's in the chart that is titled 'The lull in the fighting'. The bar that reads October has '1' for the mortar bar and one for the rocket bar. It’s in the chart that is titled ‘The lull in the fighting’. The bar that reads October has ’1′ for the mortar bar and one for the rocket bar.

]]> By: Alex Stein http://falsedichotomies.com/2008/12/31/what-happened-during-the-ceasefire/comment-page-1/#comment-299 Alex Stein Sun, 11 Jan 2009 19:00:42 +0000 http://falsedichotomies.com/?p=138#comment-299 I think I'm just confused as to where you get the statistic that only one rocket and one mortar were fired in October. I checked that link but couldn't find referring to that. I think I’m just confused as to where you get the statistic that only one rocket and one mortar were fired in October. I checked that link but couldn’t find referring to that.

]]> By: SDRay http://falsedichotomies.com/2008/12/31/what-happened-during-the-ceasefire/comment-page-1/#comment-298 SDRay Sun, 11 Jan 2009 18:48:13 +0000 http://falsedichotomies.com/?p=138#comment-298 Alex, Every statistic I mentioned related to the second half of 2008. What gave you the impression that these statistics related to 2007? Alex,

Every statistic I mentioned related to the second half of 2008. What gave you the impression that these statistics related to 2007?

]]> By: Alex http://falsedichotomies.com/2008/12/31/what-happened-during-the-ceasefire/comment-page-1/#comment-282 Alex Fri, 09 Jan 2009 00:01:16 +0000 http://falsedichotomies.com/?p=138#comment-282 SDRay - I will read the report you have cited properly and write something on it within a week. In the meantime, I don't understand why you are citing statistics for 2007 when my piece referred to the second half of 2008. SDRay – I will read the report you have cited properly and write something on it within a week. In the meantime, I don’t understand why you are citing statistics for 2007 when my piece referred to the second half of 2008.

]]> By: SDRay http://falsedichotomies.com/2008/12/31/what-happened-during-the-ceasefire/comment-page-1/#comment-281 SDRay Thu, 08 Jan 2009 23:51:20 +0000 http://falsedichotomies.com/?p=138#comment-281 To add to my previous post, I find the statements "crossings were open (to an average of 90 trucks a day) when there was calm, and closed when there was not. This gives the lie to the idea of an unyielding and consistently maintained siege" to be entirely inconsistent with the UN descriptions and cavalier with respect to the suffering of the population. After all, in October there was 1 rocket and 1 mortar fired, a reduction of 99% from pre-truce levels. (see http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Terrorism-+Obstacle+to+Peace/Palestinian+terror+since+2000/Missile+fire+from+Gaza+on+Israeli+civilian+targets+Aug+2007.htm?DisplayMode=print#statistics). But in that month there was a 30% decline in the number of truckloads entering Gaza in October compared to September and imports were only 21% of the December 2005 level. During the ceasefire there was not a single fatality or serious injury as a result of the rockets. Nevertheless Gaza continued to suffer under the blockade. To add to my previous post, I find the statements

“crossings were open (to an average of 90 trucks a day) when there was calm, and closed when there was not. This gives the lie to the idea of an unyielding and consistently maintained siege”

to be entirely inconsistent with the UN descriptions and cavalier with respect to the suffering of the population. After all, in October there was 1 rocket and 1 mortar fired, a reduction of 99% from pre-truce levels. (see http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Terrorism-+Obstacle+to+Peace/Palestinian+terror+since+2000/Missile+fire+from+Gaza+on+Israeli+civilian+targets+Aug+2007.htm?DisplayMode=print#statistics).
But in that month there was a 30% decline in the number of truckloads entering Gaza in October compared to September and imports were only 21% of the December 2005 level.

During the ceasefire there was not a single fatality or serious injury as a result of the rockets. Nevertheless Gaza continued to suffer under the blockade.

]]> By: SDRay http://falsedichotomies.com/2008/12/31/what-happened-during-the-ceasefire/comment-page-1/#comment-280 SDRay Thu, 08 Jan 2009 23:22:00 +0000 http://falsedichotomies.com/?p=138#comment-280 Regarding working out whether goods have been allowed into Gaza during the ceasefire, the following webpage of the UN Coordinator for Humanitarian Affairs features a number of reports with precise measurements of the level of imports into Gaza during the ceasefire: http://www.ochaopt.org/?module=displaysection&section_id=118&format=html The reports state that during the ceasefire the population of Gaza saw little tangible benefit from the truce. In July the level of commodities remained far below the needs of the population, with only essential humanitarian supplies allowed in. Imports in July were only 37% of the December 2005 level (one month before the Palestinian elections). The restrictions on imports and the total ban on exports left 95% of Gaza’s local industry closed. Fuel imports remained restricted and power cuts continued for four to five hours a day. The blockade actually worsened in August and October and intensified to unprecedented levels following the renewal of violence on 4 November. Regarding working out whether goods have been allowed into Gaza during the ceasefire, the following webpage of the UN Coordinator for Humanitarian Affairs features a number of reports with precise measurements of the level of imports into Gaza during the ceasefire:

http://www.ochaopt.org/?module=displaysection&section_id=118&format=html

The reports state that during the ceasefire the population of Gaza saw little tangible benefit from the truce. In July the level of commodities remained far below the needs of the population, with only essential humanitarian supplies allowed in. Imports in July were only 37% of the December 2005 level (one month before the Palestinian elections).

The restrictions on imports and the total ban on exports left 95% of Gaza’s local industry closed. Fuel imports remained restricted and power cuts continued for four to five hours a day. The blockade actually worsened in August and October and intensified to unprecedented levels following the renewal of violence on 4 November.

]]> By: Alex http://falsedichotomies.com/2008/12/31/what-happened-during-the-ceasefire/comment-page-1/#comment-278 Alex Wed, 07 Jan 2009 19:18:54 +0000 http://falsedichotomies.com/?p=138#comment-278 Peter - interesting points. Let's say you are right and that Israel needlessly attacked on Nov 4th. What were its interests in doing so? Was this so as to ensure that Hamas would still be firing over one month later, thus providing the pretext for the military operation? Also - we need to think about who ordered the operation on November 4th. Was the political echelon responsible? Peter – interesting points. Let’s say you are right and that Israel needlessly attacked on Nov 4th. What were its interests in doing so? Was this so as to ensure that Hamas would still be firing over one month later, thus providing the pretext for the military operation?
Also – we need to think about who ordered the operation on November 4th. Was the political echelon responsible?

]]> By: Peter D http://falsedichotomies.com/2008/12/31/what-happened-during-the-ceasefire/comment-page-1/#comment-277 Peter D Wed, 07 Jan 2009 19:11:51 +0000 http://falsedichotomies.com/?p=138#comment-277 Alex, fair enough, point taken re: not producing evidence to the contrary of the assertion that the tunnel was for kidnapping. However, after a cursory search (not much time right now) I found the only source for the assertion to be the Israeli gov. or IDF. In other words, there doesn't seem to be any independent body (that hasn't been fed the same info by the IDF) that checked the assertion. The report that you cite doesn't cite its sources and we may be pretty sure it was fed the same info. Now, <a href="http://lawrenceofcyberia.blogs.com/news/2009/01/camera-never-lies-unless-its-an-idf-camera.html" rel="nofollow">we know how reliable the info IDF is feeding us is</a> - I'd say, no more reliable than the info coming from the Palestinians - so, let's keep taking it with a grain of salt (By the way, just now, again, it looks like <a href="http://www.richardsilverstein.com/tikun_olam/2009/01/07/idf-false-claim-militants-fired-from-gaza-un-school/" rel="nofollow">IDF is trying to prove that there was fire from the UN school shelled yesterday by using a video from 2007</a>, while a some days ago <a>it mistook gas canisters for Grad missiles</a>.) So, yes, for me credibility of IDF is next to zero: "fool me once..." By the way, have you seen <a href="http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docid=-3101465086995206636&hl=en&%23038;fs=true" rel="nofollow">One Million Bullets in October</a>? Watch it, it is worth it, despite being an unbalanced and biased piece. Even seeing through the spin of all the talking heads in the film, your hair will still stand on end. P.S. By the way, just checked the language of the report. It says on page 3: <i>On November 4 the IDF carried out a military action close to the border security fence on the Gazan side to prevent an abduction planned by Hamas, which had dug a tunnel under the fence to that purpose.</i> First, note that it doesn't claim the alleged abduction was supposed to take place on Nov. 4. Second, from <a href="http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Terrorism-%20Obstacle%20to%20Peace/Terrorism%20and%20Islamic%20Fundamentalism-/IDF_uncovers_Gaza_Strip_tunnel_intended_for_terror_attack_5-Nov-2008.htm" rel="nofollow">the Ministry of FA site</a> we learn that <i>Last night (4 November), IDF and security forces uncovered a tunnel meant for the immediate abduction of IDF soldiers a distance of 250 meters from the security fence of the Gaza Strip. The operation was carried out by an IDF force close to the security fence inside the Gaza Strip, in order to thwart the intended terror attack. The force completed its mission and returned to Israel this morning.</i> which is ambiguous, but seems to suggest the tunnel was 250 meters inside Gaza (actually, there is a picture there that claims just that!), so, where does the assertion of your report that the "tunnel [was dug] under the fence" comes from? The whole story seems shaky. P.P.S I am surprised you dismissed my idea of ambushing the tunnel and scoring a major PR victory. Think of it, one of the major problems of the current campaign from PR point of view is that a lot of people don't buy the Israeli claim that Hamas broke the truce (given the Nov 4 provocation) and that it was not interested in truce (there are many sources contradicting it). If Hamas intended to carry and abduction, IDF would have had a much better casus beli if it caught it red-handed and appear to be on the defensive side. It could say: see, they don't want truce, blah-blah-blah. So, maybe Israel is just stupid to miss the opportunity or maybe something else.... Alex, fair enough, point taken re: not producing evidence to the contrary of the assertion that the tunnel was for kidnapping. However, after a cursory search (not much time right now) I found the only source for the assertion to be the Israeli gov. or IDF. In other words, there doesn’t seem to be any independent body (that hasn’t been fed the same info by the IDF) that checked the assertion. The report that you cite doesn’t cite its sources and we may be pretty sure it was fed the same info. Now, we know how reliable the info IDF is feeding us is – I’d say, no more reliable than the info coming from the Palestinians – so, let’s keep taking it with a grain of salt (By the way, just now, again, it looks like IDF is trying to prove that there was fire from the UN school shelled yesterday by using a video from 2007, while a some days ago it mistook gas canisters for Grad missiles.)
So, yes, for me credibility of IDF is next to zero: “fool me once…”
By the way, have you seen One Million Bullets in October? Watch it, it is worth it, despite being an unbalanced and biased piece. Even seeing through the spin of all the talking heads in the film, your hair will still stand on end.
P.S. By the way, just checked the language of the report. It says on page 3:
On November 4 the IDF carried out a military
action close to the border security fence on the Gazan side to prevent an abduction
planned by Hamas, which had dug a tunnel under the fence to that purpose.
First, note that it doesn’t claim the alleged abduction was supposed to take place on Nov. 4.
Second, from the Ministry of FA site we learn that
Last night (4 November), IDF and security forces uncovered a tunnel meant for the immediate abduction of IDF soldiers a distance of 250 meters from the security fence of the Gaza Strip. The operation was carried out by an IDF force close to the security fence inside the Gaza Strip, in order to thwart the intended terror attack. The force completed its mission and returned to Israel this morning.
which is ambiguous, but seems to suggest the tunnel was 250 meters inside Gaza (actually, there is a picture there that claims just that!), so, where does the assertion of your report that the “tunnel [was dug] under the fence” comes from? The whole story seems shaky.
P.P.S I am surprised you dismissed my idea of ambushing the tunnel and scoring a major PR victory. Think of it, one of the major problems of the current campaign from PR point of view is that a lot of people don’t buy the Israeli claim that Hamas broke the truce (given the Nov 4 provocation) and that it was not interested in truce (there are many sources contradicting it). If Hamas intended to carry and abduction, IDF would have had a much better casus beli if it caught it red-handed and appear to be on the defensive side. It could say: see, they don’t want truce, blah-blah-blah. So, maybe Israel is just stupid to miss the opportunity or maybe something else….

]]> By: Alex http://falsedichotomies.com/2008/12/31/what-happened-during-the-ceasefire/comment-page-1/#comment-269 Alex Tue, 06 Jan 2009 09:26:26 +0000 http://falsedichotomies.com/?p=138#comment-269 Peter - I think the report I've cited above is a credible source (pay particular attention to the George Orwell quote), and certainly more reliable than claims which involve saying "as far as I can remember" and "something along the lines of". As I keep saying about all this stuff, I'm happy to read equally sober stuff arguing differently, whether it be on the issue of Nov 4th or the rest of the ceasefire. The Hitch makes some good points about the electioneering here - http://www.slate.com/id/2207872?wpisrc=newsletter. He's also, as far as I know, the only person to point out that this is the month in which new elections for the PA have to be called by Abbas. Silence on this issue, I think, speaks volumes. I suppose I'd prefer a slight shift in emphasis in the language used, from talk of grand planning to short-term exploitation of circumstances. The latter can at least be argued, the former is a pipe dream in a country ruled by sub-par politicians. Peter – I think the report I’ve cited above is a credible source (pay particular attention to the George Orwell quote), and certainly more reliable than claims which involve saying “as far as I can remember” and “something along the lines of”. As I keep saying about all this stuff, I’m happy to read equally sober stuff arguing differently, whether it be on the issue of Nov 4th or the rest of the ceasefire.
The Hitch makes some good points about the electioneering here – http://www.slate.com/id/2207872?wpisrc=newsletter. He’s also, as far as I know, the only person to point out that this is the month in which new elections for the PA have to be called by Abbas. Silence on this issue, I think, speaks volumes. I suppose I’d prefer a slight shift in emphasis in the language used, from talk of grand planning to short-term exploitation of circumstances. The latter can at least be argued, the former is a pipe dream in a country ruled by sub-par politicians.

]]> By: Peter D http://falsedichotomies.com/2008/12/31/what-happened-during-the-ceasefire/comment-page-1/#comment-268 Peter D Tue, 06 Jan 2009 04:53:45 +0000 http://falsedichotomies.com/?p=138#comment-268 Please, find me one credible source claiming that the tunnel was unequivocally for a cross border raid. "Strange language" doesn't occur without reason. As far as I remember, the tunnel wasn't even finished, so the claim of Hamas planning the attack on Nov 4 is absurd, but I am ready to stand corrected if I am wrong. Now, re: "coincidence in international affairs"; Alex, you pride yourself of being so balanced and cerebral and seeing through the spins. Are you really asking this question in good faith? Same coincidence as starting the Gaza operation two days before New Years, two months before elections and 20+ days before changing of the American President. <a href="http://mostlyonisrael.blogspot.com/2009/01/on-unbearable-lightness-of-waging-war.html" rel="nofollow">See good points by Aryeh Amihay</a>: <i>War, on the other hand, can never wait. I am not saying that if a foreign army invades Israel, Israel should not retaliate because it is right before elections. But the situation in Gaza is not new. Rockets have been falling on Sderot and elsewhere for eight years now. If this operation is indeed intended to put an end to the rocket-shooting once and for all, certainly waiting another six weeks would have not changed anything.</i> Please, find me one credible source claiming that the tunnel was unequivocally for a cross border raid. “Strange language” doesn’t occur without reason. As far as I remember, the tunnel wasn’t even finished, so the claim of Hamas planning the attack on Nov 4 is absurd, but I am ready to stand corrected if I am wrong.
Now, re: “coincidence in international affairs”; Alex, you pride yourself of being so balanced and cerebral and seeing through the spins. Are you really asking this question in good faith?
Same coincidence as starting the Gaza operation two days before New Years, two months before elections and 20+ days before changing of the American President. See good points by Aryeh Amihay:
War, on the other hand, can never wait. I am not saying that if a foreign army invades Israel, Israel should not retaliate because it is right before elections. But the situation in Gaza is not new. Rockets have been falling on Sderot and elsewhere for eight years now. If this operation is indeed intended to put an end to the rocket-shooting once and for all, certainly waiting another six weeks would have not changed anything.

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