Election Update: The Likud Primaries
This week, an unlikely savior of the Israeli left emerged. The man with the unfortunate literary surname, Moshe Feiglin, Likud’s far-right agent provocateur, did remarkably well in the Likud primaries. Israel has a system of pure proportional representation; the parties hold primaries to determine which candidate will be first in line for a seat in the Knesset. Faiglin represents the extreme-right of Israeli politics. He opposes conceding an inch of land, supports transferring the Palestinian-Arab population from the Land of Israel, and wants the Knesset and Supreme Court replaced by a rebuilt Third Temple. In short, he represents Judeo-Fascism.
Bibi’s strategy is built on convincing the Israeli public that Likud are a moderate, centre-right party. As part of this effort, he had to stop Feiglin doing well in the primaries. But he failed. Feiglin took twentieth place on the Knesset list. At first glance, this might not seem that impressive. When you take into account that Likud should easily take twenty seats, though, the picture looks different. Of more significance, though, is the makeup of the rest of the top twenty. The top five on the list (Gideon Saár, Gilad Erdan, Reuven Rivlin, Benny Begin, and Moshe Kahlon) have all been endorsed by Feiglin. In contrast, Bibi’s favourites barely featured. Dan Meridor took 17th place, while Uzi Dayan looks all but out of the race for a Knesset place. Bibi’s highest placed candidate is also his most overtly right-wing one, former Chief of Staff Moshe Yaálon.
It is no exaggeration to call this a far-right list, perhaps the most right-wing party slate in contemporary Israeli political history. The assumed wisdom is that this will deal a fatal blow to Likud’s election hopes. Internal polls ordered by Netanyahu himself, for example, show that Feiglin and his mates are liable to cause Likud to lose at least four or five seats in the elections. The first poll since the primary, however, doesn’t bear this out. A Haaretz poll, conducted the day after, shows Likud way out in front with 36, Kadima with 27, and Labor with 12. This is disturbing data, and one can only hope that it was carried out too soon after the Likud primary to make a real difference to the figures. Besides, Israeli opinion polls are notoriously unreliable.
Despite these consoling numbers, Netanyahu’s not resting on his laurels. Israeli party slates often have seats reserved for women and minorities. Because women performed relatively well in the Likud primaries, Bibi has managed to convince the Likud party committee that the ticket secured for women should be given to regional representatives. This means, for reasons which aren’t entirely clear to me, that Feiglin finds himself in 36th place, meaning his chances of gaining a seat in the Knesset are hanging in the balance.
Meanwhile, Bibi has gone on the diplomatic offensive, telling foreign diplomats that he’ll personally manage negotiations with Syria and the Palestinians, and that the international community has nothing to worry about. Can a leopard change his spots? The answer, I think, is painted on Tel Aviv buses.
?ביבי
אני לא מאמין לו
[Bibi? I don't believe him].
In theory, then, Faiglin’s success, even when one takes into account today’s martyrdom, should benefit Kadima and the parties of the left. But yet. It seems to me that Bibi is deploying an unwitting Faiglin as his wing-man. Bibi’s the average-looking guy who’s cruising the pubs with a man who looks like the Lebanese mutant potato. By emphasising what a monster Feiglin is, Bibi is trying to convince the Israeli public that he’s not so bad. This is the clear and present danger, a seduction that must be avoided at all costs.
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Ma’amin is with an Aleph.
I think the left lost its savior a few years ago when he had a brain aneurysm. Fact is, Israel is sick and tired of Barak and his lies (“I’ll leave the govt if Winograd puts any blame on Olmert”,”I’ll bolt the government and get new elections”, or his inability to protect Sderot). And it seems the more Tzippi opens her mouth, the more one realizes she is not really fit to lead this country.
I don’t really like Feiglin that much – but I really don’t like the ‘democracy’ in pushing him down to the 36th slot. He ran fair n’ square, people vote, you live with the vote. The last person who made the Likud center-right failed to destroy the party and gave us our most corrupt and inept prime minister to date. Let’s hope Bibi just sticks with his list, which does include some very talented & honest folks (heck, even Meretz applauded Begin’s return to politics) and some fresh blood, and let’s the public decide … Left, ‘moderate’ (though Kadima don’t really have any ideology), or Right …
if we are getting into the spirit of resurrecting older politicians on ten-year cycles, i nominate the frozen bodies of Ben-Gurion and Begin.
Israel has always been in favor of resurrecting politicians (Rabin – out in 1977 and back in 1992, Peres, out in 1977 and back in 1996, Sharon – arguably out countless times, back in 2001, Arens, and the list goes on).
Regardless of my own political views, this Likud list is far from “the most right-wing party slate in contemporary Israeli political history.” To begin with, the first Ben Gurion administrations were further right, as was arguably Golda Meir, not to mention Shamir. And today – the most right wing? HaBayit HaYehudi and all its components are all much further eastward on the spectrum.
Finally, I think that only a very small part of Bibi’s strategy has anything to do with giving people the impression of Likud as “a moderate, centre-right party.” People who want a party that is simply moderate will vote Kadima, people who want left – well, they’re out of the picture as far as the Likud’s campaign strategy is concerned. The Likud needs the far-right, with the notable exception of 2006 (due to Sharon) the main reason Likud does not win more seats in any elections is that the real right “siphons off” votes from them. Likud has long been seen as only the lesser of many evils for the true right-wing base, and its only image of being right-wing is that is NOT Labor (or Kadima). Bibi does not want to be seen as overly extreme – so as not to let too many votes slip to Kadima, but not too moderate either, for that will cause the loss of many many votes either to various parties who will not pass the threshold and voters who simply will not vote (a constituency that has been steadily growing over the last decade or so).
LB – Peres returned to the fold in the mid 1980s in the ‘tie’ with Shamir.
Shamir, as a PM, was not that right wing either. The foundations of Oslo started under his leadership with the Madrid Conference.
Wrt Ha’Bayit Ha’Yehudi – I haven’t seen much from them, are they not similar to the Mavdal?
Avram – regarding Peres et al – I was only commenting that Israel has a long history of resurrecting politicians. And I’m not sure I agree re: Shamir – he was pushed to Madrid by Bush I’s threats about American aid – in any case, more right wing that Bibi ever will be (with regards to Israeli-Arab issues).
HaBayit Hayehudi is new- this year’s reincarnation of Ichud Leumi (National Union) – basically an amalgam of a bunch of small parties on the right – including Mafdal, Herut, Tekuma (former Mafdal members), etc – the 2 main differences between Bayit Yehudi and Ichud Leumi are – 1. that Ichud Leumi wasn’t really a party – it was an agreement between multiple parties to campaign on the same list, though they maintained separate party institutions, and 2. in theory, Bayit Yehudi is trying not to be simply a religious party and court secular voters, as well.