Round & Round

Whenever I’m in London, my friends challenge me on Israel’s political system. It’s the democracy of fools, they tell me, when it leads to the kind of instability Israel experiences as a matter of routine. The country has had 31 governments since its inception, the result of its electoral system of pure, unadulterated proportional representation. Still, I tell them, it’s not so bad. At least our system authentically reflects the wishes of the people. If we choose to vote for chaos, then so be it. Isn’t getting what you want the point of democracy?

Now enough is enough. Shas have taken the game too far. At a time of deep economic uncertainty, to bring down a potential government because of an unwillingness to subsidise reckless reproduction (don’t believe anyone who claims they didn’t join the coalition because of Jerusalem) is unacceptable. All the more so when the matsav seems as a stable as ever, and when the government is embarked on the only path that has the potential of bringing peace, i.e. the path of negotiations (both on the Syrian and Palestinian tracks).

Shas don’t like those who accuse them of ‘extortion’; it’s just more evidence of Ashkenazi racism, they claim. According to Eli Yishai, “It’s interesting that they didn’t call the Labour party, which received NIS1.5 billion under the coalition agreement, extortionists. We are speaking here of racism and condescension. If he who helps ailing children is called an extortionist, then I am an extortionist.” I have to confess by not being entirely sure by what he’s referring to with the NIS1.5 billion claim, but I would like to focus a little on the child allowances. Here’s what Finance Minister Ronny Bar-On (Kadima) has to say on the subject: “I’ve clearly and publicly stated my stance, some of my advisors might state too clearly, I’ve said that with the economy the way it is, it is a mistake to increase spending. I knew that there was a chance that insisting on this could result in early elections…the claim that Israel has unlimited resources is baseless. There are more worthy causes that warrant an increased budget, such as minimising socio-economic gaps, among other things.”

Shas will tell you that they wanted the increase in allowances to start from child number three. This move was designed to broaden their appeal, as it would mean that only 20% of the NIS1 billion extra would go to Shas voters. “All the rest will go the other sectors of society, Arabs, secular Israelis and settlers,” stated up-and-coming Communications Minister Ariel Atias. It is Livni that forced the break-down of the negotiations, they claim, by insisting that the allowances only begin from child number four, a demand which Shas view as a cynical manoeuvre to depict them as a narrowly Haredi party.

Both parties are guilty here. The idea that you should receive an extra amount of money after reproducing a certain amount of children is absurd. Each child should be worth the same; having lots of children should not be profitable. Moreover, having to go to the polls because of this issue is insufferable. All the more so because of what might happen in the elections. For the last couple of years, opinion polls have shown Netanyahu to be a shoe-in for Prime Minister. With this in mind, I’ve been quick to join the “anyone but Bibi” group on Facebook.  

A poll by the Dahaf Research Institute shows Kadima winning 29 of 120 seats (the same number it has now), and Likud taking 26. A TNS Telesker survey gives Kadima 31 seats to Likud’s 29. Both surveys found that Labour would win 11 seats if elections were held this week. Overall, the polls show that the right-wing bloc will take 61 seats and the centre-left bloc 59 (this includes 11 Israeli-Arab MKS, a topic I’ll discuss in a future post). If Kadima do edge out Likud, President Peres may have to choose between asking the leader of the largest party and the leader of the largest bloc to form the new government. I’m not sure what the precedent is for this scenario.

Either way, this brings us back to where we started. Neither party will be able to rule without Shas. While Shas and Likud are more natural bedfellows, Bibi has already been expressing concern that Shas may demand the Education portfolio, a nightmare for anyone with even the most moderately progressive objectives for the Israeli education system. As for Kadima, is there any reason to expect that the stumbling-blocks that brought down the Livni coalition-in-the-making last week won’t be insurmountable again next time? Like Groundhog Day, Israel’s political instability continues to replicate itself, while at the same time apathy takes root and socio-economic problems fester. According to Ovadia Yosef, “Anyone who does not vote for Shas is a traitor, not just to Shas but to the Torah.” Coming from the spiritual leader of the party whose demands are sending Israel to the polls at the worst possible time, this is chutzpah indeed.